The 15% import surcharge currently applied to most US imports expires on July 24, 2026.

That is less than 110 days away.

What happens on July 25 is not what most importers are hoping for. The surcharge does not simply disappear. It is being replaced — with something potentially more expensive and certainly more permanent.

Here is what is coming and what to do before it arrives.

Why the Section 122 surcharge exists

On February 20, 2026, the US Supreme Court ruled that IEEPA tariffs — the broad import tariffs President Trump had imposed on most countries — were unlawful. The President needed an immediate replacement.

He invoked Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which allows the President to impose a temporary surcharge of up to 15% on imports to address balance-of-payments problems. That surcharge took effect February 24, 2026.

The critical word is temporary. Section 122 limits the surcharge to 150 days — which expires July 24, 2026. Congress can vote to extend it, but most trade experts consider this unlikely.

What replaces it

The administration has been explicit that Section 301 tariffs will replace the Section 122 surcharge before it expires.

Two sweeping Section 301 investigations were initiated on March 11 and 12, 2026 — covering 16 countries for structural excess manufacturing capacity and 60 countries for failure to enforce forced labour import bans.

Unlike Section 122, which caps tariffs at 15%, Section 301 has no upper limit. The first-term China Section 301 tariffs reached 25% to 100% on specific categories.

The USTR is running these investigations on an accelerated timeline specifically to have new tariff rates in place before July 24. The public hearings are scheduled for April 28 and May 5, 2026.

What this means for your import costs

For importers sourcing from China — your existing Section 301 tariff rates of 7.5% to 100% remain in place regardless of what happens to Section 122. You are not getting relief on July 24.

For importers sourcing from Vietnam, India, Mexico, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Cambodia, Thailand, Malaysia, Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Japan, Norway, Switzerland or the EU — you are currently paying the 15% Section 122 surcharge on top of your regular MFN rates. On July 24 that surcharge expires. But new Section 301 tariffs from the current investigations may replace it — potentially at higher rates and targeted specifically at your product categories.

For all importers — the window between now and July 24 is your planning window. After July 24 the new permanent regime locks in. Sourcing decisions made in this window under the current temporary structure are the ones you will live with under the new permanent structure.

The three things to do before July 24

First — map your current effective duty rate on every product. Not approximately. Precisely. Include the Section 122 surcharge, all Section 301 rates, and all Section 232 rates. This is your current cost baseline.

Second — model what happens to each product under three scenarios. Scenario one: Section 301 tariffs are imposed at 15% on your sourcing countries. Scenario two: rates reach 25%. Scenario three: your current sourcing country reaches 35% and you need to shift. For each scenario — what does your landed cost look like and what is your margin.

Third — identify your two best alternative sourcing routes for each major product category. Know the duty rate differential before you need to make a decision under pressure.

The importers who do this analysis now — before July 24 — will make better decisions and faster decisions when the new regime is announced.

How we can help

Domshark Raqam maps this for importers. We take your product list, verify every HS code, calculate your current annual duty exposure, model the July 24 scenarios, and identify three specific actions to reduce your costs under the new regime.

Fixed price. 10 business days. Written report with debrief call included.

Email saiju@domshark.co with the subject line ANALYSIS.